Comment: Online sales rise just 6.6%? Don’t panic

Last week the British Retail Consortium said online retail sales grew by just 6.6 per cent in March.

The data passed virtually without comment despite the suggestion that online sales in the UK appear to be grinding to a halt.

That figure, from the UK high street and supermarket’s trade body, represented a rate of growth around two-and-a-half times the rate of total retail sales growth. Small, if not the smallest rise, compared to growth at any point over the past decade or more. 

Other figures suggest a different picture. Barclaycard, which tracks about half of all spending, says online sales in the month rose 12 per cent. Internet retailer’s body, the IMRG, said the increase was 13 per cent. The issue is neither of those actually measure pure retail sales (they include spending on holidays and flights for example).

But several retailers also said last week that online sales continued to grow rapidly (at least two of them were relatively late to the online party, it has to be said, so sales still have steep growth potential). Marks & Spencer said online sales in the three months to the end of March increased 23 per cent. Mothercare said its Direct in Home sales increased 18.2 per cent and total sales falling 4.8 per cent. Halfords said online sales increased 13.4 per cent compared to a 0.5 per cent increase in total retail sales. 

There are always going to be oddities in the data and unusual months. But the BRC-recorded slump also came in a month where anecdotal evidence seemed to suggest freezing temperatures and snow had convinced many shoppers to take to the internet rather than the local town centre.

Is there something about the BRC sample that skews its online sales? Sample size may be an issue for them (they only take data from their members who tend to be larger retailers) and particularly where internet data is concerned. The Office of National Statistics retail data has the unrivaled sample size of the ‘900 biggest’ retailers in the country and the numbers always have the ring of truth.

They are due within the next week. So, like we said, don't panic just yet.

At the very worst take all statistics with a pinch of salt and do a bit of triangulation. Somewhere around 10 per cent or slightly above feels about right at the moment. 


Tags: online sales, online shopping, ecommerce, British Retail Consortium, high street, internet  sales, Barclaycard, Marks & Spencer, Halfords, Mothercare, IMRG, ONS Retail Sales, Office of National Statistics, UK retail sales